NEW YORK — Entering the second half of the season, the Mets are about where they expected to be. While acknowledging the unlikelihood of winning the NL East, they believed themselves capable of making the postseason, and here they are, sitting in the third wild-card spot in the National League.
Of course, framing it this way overlooks the vertiginous course the Mets traversed to get here. Their miserable May pushed them as many as 11 games below .500 and sparked reasonable concerns about a second straight summer of irrelevance in Queens. But a resurgent June — the opposite of how it usually plays out in these parts — revived the Mets’ fortunes and has them looking and playing like a team that can advance in October.
Advertisem*nt
With the second half set to start Friday night in Miami, here are three of the biggest storylines facing the Mets.
How will David Stearns approach his first trade deadline in Queens?
Six weeks ago, the Mets looked poised to be a full-on seller at the deadline with a host of impending free agents available, highlighted of course by Pete Alonso. But their inspired play since the start of June has changed the landscape considerably, and even a deep slump between now and July 30 might not prompt Stearns and Co. to sell.
The questions, then, surround how Stearns might plan to buy. Does he do so aggressively, believing the Mets capable not just of getting to October but of making noise? In that case, New York could use multiple relievers, perhaps a front-line starter and help on the bench.
Does Stearns buy exclusively, or does he look to capitalize on the Mets’ surplus in the rotation? New York could look to move Jose Quintana or Luis Severino to either bolster that bullpen or fortify its farm system.
Kodai Senga appears bound for a late July return and could give the Mets rotation a stretch-drive boost. (Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
What lift can Kodai Senga provide?
The Mets have arrived at the second half in postseason position despite this startling stat: Their ace, Kodai Senga, has thrown zero innings for them.
Senga went down at the start of the Grapefruit League schedule with a shoulder strain, and an initial timeline pegging a May return has been revised on multiple occasions. But the right-hander has now made three rehab starts in the minor leagues, and he’s set to return by the end of July.
Senga was outstanding as a rookie, making the All-Star team, garnering Cy Young votes and posting an ERA below 3.00 for New York. He found that groove over the final three and a half months, following an initial period where he struggled with his command. (He didn’t allow more than three earned runs in a start after mid-June.)
Advertisem*nt
If Senga can hit the ground running in his prime form, that would give a New York rotation that has held its own an added boost. The Mets’ staff is built primarily from back-end starters who keep them in games. Senga profiles more as a Game 1 in a playoff series starter than anyone else here.
Can the offense sustain this pace?
On May 31, the Mets allowed three first-inning runs to the Diamondbacks, and a fan could be forgiven for turning off the TV. After all, New York averaged barely 3.5 runs per game at that point in the season, the offense yet another aspect of the team that ranked in the middle of the majors.
That night, the Mets scored four in the bottom of the first en route to a 10-run outburst, and their lineup hasn’t looked back. New York has owned the best offense in baseball ever since, averaging more than six runs per game in those six weeks. In those 39 games, the Mets have hit double digits six times and scored at least seven runs in 17 contests.
That turnaround has been driven by the revised top of the order with Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo, who each own an OPS greater than .950 in that span. That said, New York’s also benefited from contributions down the lineup — from the breakout of Mark Vientos, the return of Francisco Alvarez, the revival of Harrison Bader and the magic in a bottle of José Iglesias.
Since the end of May, the Mets rank first in the majors in runs and OPS while sitting second in home runs. Keep that up, and New York can indeed make some noise in the autumn.
(Top photo of Francisco Lindor: Wendell Cruz / USA Today)
Tim Britton is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the New York Mets. He has covered Major League Baseball since 2009 and the Mets since 2018. Prior to joining The Athletic, he spent seven seasons on the Red Sox beat for the Providence Journal. He has also contributed to Baseball Prospectus, NBC Sports Boston, MLB.com and Yahoo Sports. Follow Tim on Twitter @TimBritton
