Updated 5th August July - Covering 12th August - 3rd September 2024
Northwest to Southeast divide before a potential pattern change later in August
Temperatures are forecast to be about 1°C above the 1991-2020 normal in East Anglia and south-east England, but for most of Scotland and Northern Ireland temperatures will probably be around 0.5°C below normal.
It looks probable that south-east England will be drier than normal and it may also come out drier than normal in parts of east and especially north-east Scotland due to a drier end to August, but most other regions, especially western Britain, will probably be wetter than normal.
Sunshine totals will probably not be far from normal in most parts of the UK but Northern Ireland and south-west Scotland and north-west England will probably have below-average sunshine.
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Week 2: Monday 12th August - Sunday 18th August
This period will see mainly westerly winds and the jet stream pushing further south, but despite this it looks likely to frequently be dry and warm in East Anglia and south-east England, particularly early in the week. There will be some very hot weather at times over France and Spain which means that there is potential for one or two individual very hot days towards the south-east, associated with southerly winds, and potentially some thunderstorms when the heat breaks down. There is potential for the 12th in particular to be a very hot day in the south-east, although it is "touch and go" as to whether the very hot air mass over France that day will make it into the south-east of England.
Particularly during mid to late week, rain bands will frequently push in from the North Atlantic, interspersed with some brighter, showery weather, particularly in northern and western Britain. The general trend will be for the unsettled, cooler weather to push south and east as the week progresses, but it may take until late in the week for this to extend into south-eastern Britain.
As a result, relative to the 1991-2020 long-term normal, temperatures are forecast to be about 1°C above normal in East Anglia and south-east England, but up to 1°C below normal in most of Scotland, Northern Ireland and north-west England. Temperatures may also be slightly above normal near the coast of eastern Scotland and north-east England due to the mainly westerly and south-westerly winds. Averaged nationally temperatures will not be far from normal.
It looks probable that most of the country will be wetter than normal, though not exceptionally so. However, much of East Anglia and south-east England will probably be drier than normal, though there is potential for rainfall totals to be quite variable in the south-east of Britain due to potential for the occasional hot thundery outbreak.
Sunshine totals will probably be below normal in most regions, especially Northern Ireland, south-west Scotland and north-west England, but near to slightly above normal in northern Scotland and in East Anglia and south-east England.
Week 3: Monday 19th August - Sunday 25th August
A northwest-southeast split pattern looks likely to continue for much of this week, with high pressure sometimes coming close to south-eastern Britain, and again with some hot weather at times over France and Spain, giving potential for one or two brief hot interludes mainly for England and mainly towards the south-east. For Scotland and Northern Ireland it looks set to remain rather changeable with bands of rain moving from west to east quite often, interspersed by some brighter weather with showers. For England and Wales, for much of the time it will be quite changeable with westerly and south-westerly winds, but the south and east of England may see only small rainfall amounts for much of the time.
Thus, statistically this week is likely to be similar to the previous week, but perhaps with an increased chance of drier than average weather extending to much of England, rather than just East Anglia and the south-east. For the west of Northern Ireland and for western Scotland it will probably be wetter than average. Temperatures are again likely to be about 1°C above normal in the south-east, but generally up to 1°C below normal in most of Scotland, north-west England and Northern Ireland. Sunshine totals are likely to be up on those of the previous week in most parts of England but it will probably be cloudier than average in Northern Ireland, and most of Scotland and western England.
Rest of month: Monday 26th August - Tuesday 3rd September
There are hints that the predominantly westerly pattern of previous weeks will fade, with a general signal for a below-average mean westerly flow over the British Isles towards the end of August. There will be an increasing chance of high pressure developing to the north and north-east, and low pressure developing in the eastern North Atlantic, meaning that southerly and easterly winds will probably be more frequent than normal, although there is considerable uncertainty over the specifics of the overall weather pattern at this stage. It is most likely to be wetter than average in the south-west of Britain, with potential for some thundery activity as well, while most of Scotland will probably be drier than average. Temperatures are most likely to be above normal, though with uncertainty over the extent to which it will be warm.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
